Review of Predictions for 2024, by Gautam Hazari.
Yesterday, Gautam Hazari unveiled our first set of predictions for 2025, exploring the shifts we can expect in identity, AI, and fraud. Today, we thought it would be interesting for Gautam to review the predictions he made last year. No pressure! Over to you again, Gautam, let’s see what you said…
Prediction 1: Generative AI Will Continue to Take Centre Stage
Generative AI was forecasted to remain a dominant focus in 2024, with the rising costs of model training and query processing driving a shift toward efficiency and smaller datasets. This included a potential trend toward smaller LLMs or even SLMs. Creative orchestration beyond multi-modal approaches—combining text and binary content—was expected, with breakthroughs like Q* and the merging of GPTs with AlphaGo, pushing LLMs to “think.” Generative AI tools, such as copilots and assistants, were also anticipated to grow, with conversational AI receiving a significant boost.
Review: This prediction surpassed expectations! Numerous launches from OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and Google reinforced the prominence of frontier LLMs, which delivered enhanced features, including multimodal capabilities.
Score: 9/10
Prediction 2: Fraud Landscape Will Get Reshaped
The prediction stated that identity takeover fraud would outpace account takeover fraud, driven by generative AI. Phishing attacks were expected to undergo a generational shift, with LLMs generating highly personalised phishing messages based on social media content. These attacks would likely become multi-modal, incorporating synthetic voice and video generated by AI. Passive fraud prevention solutions were predicted to gain traction, while regulators were expected to implement proactive measures.
Review: Generative AI-enabled fraud attacks emerged as predicted, ranging from audio-based phishing to advanced video impersonation, with several high-profile incidents reported globally.
Score: 7/10
Prediction 3: Quantum Technologies Will Start to See Early Developments
Compute-heavy fields like genome sequencing, cryptography (e.g., Quantum Key Distribution), drug discovery, and high-frequency trading were forecasted to embrace quantum technologies. A significant milestone anticipated was the transition from physical qubits to error-corrected logical qubits. McKinsey projected the quantum technologies market to reach $1.3 trillion by 2035.
Review: While quantum technology discussions gained momentum, practical and widespread adoption remains distant. However, the announcement of Google’s Willow Quantum Chip marked a significant milestone, even though it remains an experimental development for now.
Score: 5/10
A pretty good 70% success rate there, and with Gautam’s characteristic modesty, we think it might have been even more accurate. Connect with Gautam Hazari on LinkedIn to stay updated on his latest insights and contributions to the field of digital identity and technology and AI beyond artificial.
See more of Gautam’s predictions, and those from the team at www.sekura.id/blog
